The Debt Sphere

How the Debt Sphere works

What the sphere shows

The sphere is the U.S. national debt, drawn from U.S. Department of the Treasury data. It grows and shrinks with the debt. Its gold surface is debt held by the public: money the government owes to investors outside the federal government, such as individuals, banks, mutual funds, state and local governments and foreign governments. Its blue surface is intragovernmental debt: money the government owes its own trust funds, such as Social Security and federal retirement programs. A gold shell around the sphere marks the statutory debt limit set by Congress. The shell disappears on dates when Congress had the limit suspended. The sphere's size is schematic, and the U.S. outline on it is illustrative, not data.

The large total at the top is total public debt outstanding from Treasury's Debt to the Penny. Between Treasury's daily updates, the total ticks upward as a GENM estimate: Treasury's latest figure plus the trailing 365-day average daily change in total public debt outstanding for the time since that record date, calculated by GENM from Debt to the Penny. With reduced motion turned on in your device settings, or when only last saved data is available, it shows Treasury's figure for the latest record date instead.

Debt held by the public and intragovernmental holdings

Treasury's Debt to the Penny splits total public debt outstanding into two parts. Debt held by the public is federal debt held by anyone outside the federal government: individuals, corporations, state and local governments, Federal Reserve Banks, foreign governments and other investors. Intragovernmental holdings are Treasury securities held by federal trust funds and other government accounts, such as Social Security and federal retirement programs; this is debt one part of the government owes another. The Who holds the debt chart above shows how the two have changed over Treasury's Debt to the Penny history, using Treasury's figures for each record date.

The four readouts

• Public (GENM-002): debt held by the public, from Treasury's Debt to the Penny.
• Intragov (GENM-003): intragovernmental holdings, from Treasury's Debt to the Penny.
• Limit headroom (GENM-calculated): the statutory debt limit minus debt subject to the limit (GENM-004), both from the Debt Subject to Limit table of Treasury's Daily Treasury Statement. It is how much more the government can legally borrow. Treasury publishes these figures rounded to the nearest million dollars. When the limit is suspended, the readout says so instead of showing a number.
• Cash (GENM-005): the closing balance of the Treasury General Account at the Federal Reserve, the government's main cash account, from the Operating Cash Balance table of Treasury's Daily Treasury Statement. It often falls sharply during debt limit standoffs.

Moving through time

Drag the sphere, or move the timeline slider. Dragging left shows history only: actual Treasury figures for each date, back to October 2005, marked HISTORICAL. Every readout changes to that date. Dragging right shows projections only, up to 10 years ahead, marked with a red PROJECTION stamp because they are GENM estimates, not Treasury data. Projections assume the chosen growth continues and that the debt limit is raised as needed. By default they grow at the average annual growth rate of total public debt since October 2005, calculated by GENM from Treasury data, which includes crisis periods such as 2008 and 2020. Spin to today returns to the latest Treasury figures.

How the starting pace is calculated

When you switch to My projection, the daily borrowing slider starts at the trailing 365-day pace of debt subject to the statutory limit: the average daily increase over the latest 365 days of Treasury's Daily Treasury Statement, in billions of dollars a day ($B/day). This pace is GENM-calculated from Treasury data, and the tool shows the exact date range it covers. If the live pace cannot be loaded, the slider starts at $6.1B/day instead, labeled on the tool as a snapshot assumption.

My projection and the scorecard

Choose My projection and set your own daily borrowing pace. The sphere adds that amount every day into the future, shows a MY PROJECTION stamp, and tells you when the debt would reach the current limit at that pace. Your pace is saved in this browser only, together with the date you set it and Treasury's Debt to the Penny total for that date, so the tool opens on your projection the next time you visit. Moving the slider saves a new projection. Reset all returns to today and the historical rate but keeps your saved projection; Clear my projection deletes it.

Share this moment shares or copies a link to the date and projection you are looking at. A shared projection shows a SHARED PROJECTION stamp and never replaces the visitor's own saved projection unless they move the slider. Save image downloads a picture of the current view with its source line.

The scorecard compares your projection with what actually happened. It uses only live Treasury data, never a snapshot or a copy saved in your browser, and appears once at least 7 calendar days and 3 new Treasury record dates have passed since you set your pace. It then shows Treasury's actual average daily change in total public debt outstanding since that date, from Debt to the Penny, and whether your projection is running high, running low or on track (within 10 percent). The scorecard is GENM-calculated.

How current the data is

Treasury publishes Debt to the Penny and the Daily Treasury Statement each business day, usually one to two days after the date the figures describe. The record dates in the source line below tell you exactly which day the figures are for. If the GENM data service cannot be reached, the tool shows the last Treasury data saved in your browser and says so.

What this tool is not

Projections are illustrations, not forecasts. Nothing on this page is financial or investment advice. Past dates show U.S. Treasury figures for that date; future dates are GENM estimates, not Treasury data.