GENM research and analysis, grouped by category, with the latest articles below.
Credit conditions, spreads, volatility, Treasury markets, funding stress, and financial market plumbing.
2 articles
Commercial lending standards, bank solvency, defaults, private credit, and balance-sheet stress.
1 article
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Oil, gas, power grid infrastructure, critical minerals, agriculture, and physical resource constraints.
1 article
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Total public debt outstanding was $40.24 trillion on October 2, 2026. The GENM-calculated trailing 365-day pace was $6.47 billion per day, and Treasury's cash balance was $871.18 billion.
What to Watch: Treasury yields, curve pricing, inflation compensation, and corporate credit spreads, as US employment data works through markets this week. During that episode, official Federal Reserve documentation recorded
A 4.67% 10-year Treasury yield [Source: 1]The configuration is less reassuring than the individual levels suggest: nominal duration is expensive, while the positive curve and contained credit
What to Watch: The reported institutional access breach sits beside Treasury yields, curve pricing, inflation compensation, and corporate credit spreads. The Reuters wire reports that Chinese-linked hackers accessed systems
A 4.63% 10-year Treasury yield The apparent calm is therefore conditional: sovereign repricing has advanced further than credit compensation, leaving duration exposure and refinancing capacity governed by different
The stockpile that exists to cushion physical oil supply shocks has fallen to 325.7 million barrels, a decline of 5.5 million barrels in the latest weekly reading, leaving
A credit market rarely stalls at the point of visible default stress. It stalls earlier, when institutions can see credit risk but cannot transfer it in a form the regulator